At a glance – The past 24 hours have seen a dramatic escalation in US trade policy, with new tariffs and regulatory actions reverberating through global supply chains. The US government’s elimination of the de minimis exemption for low-value imports, sweeping new tariffs on Indian goods, and ongoing retaliatory measures from China have forced manufacturers and logistics providers to rapidly reassess sourcing and pricing strategies. These moves, combined with Canada’s partial lifting of retaliatory tariffs and the resumption of DHL’s high-value B2C shipments, are reshaping the cost structure for US importers and exporters. The cumulative effect is a sharp increase in landed costs for a wide range of products, with immediate impacts on both US consumers and manufacturers.
Technology advance – In the technology sector, the US government’s decision to fully eliminate the de minimis exemption for Chinese-made goods, effective May 2, 2025, marks a pivotal shift for cross-border ecommerce. Previously, shipments valued at $800 or less could enter the US duty-free, a policy that enabled rapid growth for platforms reliant on low-cost imports from China, Hong Kong, and Macau. With all such shipments now subject to duties and tariffs, major ecommerce players and logistics providers are scrambling to update their compliance systems and recalibrate pricing models. DHL, after a temporary suspension, has resumed B2C shipments over $800 USD to the US, following expedited negotiations with US Customs. This move restores a critical channel for high-value tech and consumer electronics shipments, but the new tariff regime is expected to drive up prices for end users and force some sellers to reconsider US market strategies.
Partnerships – Canada’s recent decision to lift most of its retaliatory tariffs on US goods, effective September 1, 2025, signals a partial thaw in North American trade tensions. The 25% surtax on a broad array of US products has been removed, though duties on US steel, aluminum, and autos remain in place at 25%. This policy shift is expected to benefit US manufacturers exporting to Canada, particularly in the agricultural and machinery sectors, by lowering costs and restoring access to a key market. However, the continued tariffs on metals and autos highlight persistent friction points, and industry groups are urging both governments to pursue a more comprehensive resolution. The move also comes as the US maintains its own layered tariffs on Canadian-origin goods, creating a complex landscape for companies managing cross-border supply chains.
Acquisitions/expansions – The US announcement of a sweeping 25% ad valorem tariff on all goods from India, effective September 17, 2025, is already prompting major shifts in sourcing strategies among US manufacturers and retailers. Companies with significant exposure to Indian textiles, pharmaceuticals, and auto parts are accelerating efforts to diversify supply chains, with some exploring acquisitions or joint ventures in Southeast Asia and Latin America to mitigate risk. The tariff applies to all shipments leaving India on or after August 27, with a carve-out for goods already in transit before that date and entering the US by September 17. This abrupt policy change is expected to disrupt established logistics flows and could trigger reciprocal measures from the Indian government, further complicating the trade environment for multinational firms.
Regulatory/policy – The Trump administration’s new approach to tariffs on lumber and derivative products, including a 10% tariff on softwood timber and 25% on upholstered wooden products, kitchen cabinets, and vanities, is set to take effect October 14, 2025. These tariffs, justified under national security grounds, will rise again to 30% and 50% on January 1, 2026. The administration has also invoked the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to levy broad duties on imports from Mexico, Canada, and China, targeting key building materials such as gypsum, doors, windows, and frames. More than half of US gypsum imports come from Canada and Mexico, making the construction sector particularly vulnerable. The constitutionality of this application of the IEEPA is now pending before the Supreme Court, injecting additional legal uncertainty into an already volatile policy environment. Builders and suppliers are bracing for significant cost increases and potential supply disruptions as these measures take effect.
Finance/business – China’s latest round of retaliatory tariffs and export controls, announced in response to US actions, is hitting US agricultural exporters and critical mineral supply chains. Effective March and April 2025, China imposed 15% tariffs on US-origin chicken, cotton, corn, and wheat, as well as 10% tariffs on beef, dairy, fruit, pork, sorghum, soybeans, and vegetables. Additionally, China has implemented export controls on key minerals, including tungsten, tellurium, bismuth, molybdenum, and several rare earth elements essential for electronics and clean tech manufacturing. These measures are forcing US companies to seek alternative suppliers and are expected to drive up input costs for a range of industries, from food processing to advanced manufacturing. The financial impact is compounded by ongoing uncertainty over future policy moves, with both sides signaling a willingness to escalate further if negotiations stall.
Sources: zonos, brookings, tradecomplianceresourcehub, DHL press release, Supreme Court docket, China Ministry of Commerce
